Crystal Ball Premium Edition is the most comprehensive suite of risk analysis, forecasting, real options and optimization tools available.
By combining risk analysis and optimization, Crystal Ball Premium Edition helps users not only understand risk, but guides users to make the right decisions. Since the program is a fully integrated Microsoft® Excel application, it seamlessly extends the power of Excel spreadsheet models.
Crystal Ball Premium Edition includes Crystal Ball Professional Edition with Crystal Ball, OptQuest and CB Predictor. Premium Edition also includes Real Options Analysis Toolkit, Risk Analysis Using Crystal Ball Training CD and two textbooks: Applied Risk Analysis: Moving Beyond Uncertainty in Business and Real Options Analysis: Tools and Techniques for Valuing Strategic Investments and Decisions.
Does: Easy-to-use Excel add-in that performs Monte Carlo analysis on your new or existing spreadsheet models.
Features include correlation, distribution fitting, distribution gallery, forecast charts, sensitivity and tornado analyses, precision control, Latin Hypercube sampling, network installation, and more.
Benefits: Simulates real-world situations to better understand probable outcomes; Charts and reports allow users to make sound decisions quickly by illustrating the various assumptions and forecasts.
Does: Global optimization software that searches for optimal choice for a given business decision.
The step-by-step OptQuest wizard guides the process of defining constraints, specifying the objective of the outcome, and setting the requirements. OptQuest automatically performs the calculations based on those specifications and pinpoints the best, or optimal, solution. OptQuest then transfers the best solution into the user's spreadsheet model.
Benefits: Easily determines the optimal choice; Assists in making the best decisions; Saves time and effort.
Does: Incorporate advanced methods of time-series forecasting by analyzing historical data to predict future outcomes. CB Predictor also allows users to easily create regression models that use multiple data series to create predictions.
CB Predictor will move your forecasting from guesswork to rigorous analysis in seconds.
Benefits: Provides the most accurate future performance predictions; integrates seamlessly with Crystal Ball to let users understand the uncertainty of the prediction in their analyses; completely wizard driven and extremely easy to use.
Does: A set of advanced plug-ins created through the same macros as in the Developer Kit. These tools add extra functionality to Oracle Crystal Ball 11 by automating model-building tasks and adding methods that help you analyze your modeling results.
Batch Fit - Automated distribution fitting for multiple data sets.
Tornado Chart - Helps you determine which variables should become assumptions.
Correlation Matrix - Lets you rapidly define and change your assumption correlations.
Bootstrap - Assesses the reliability and accuracy of your forecasts.
Decision Table - Lets you quickly evaluate the effects of a range of decisions on your forecast variable.
Scenario Analysis - Allows you to see which assumption values (inputs) produced a specific forecast result.
2D Simulation - Independently addresses uncertainty and variability in your simulation model to enhance your analysis.
Benefits: Provide more efficient modeling methods and more accurate forecasting
Does: Bring complete automation and control to simulations and forecasts from within a Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) program or any other language outside of Excel that supports OLE 2 automation.
Developer Kits provided for both Oracle Crystal Ball 11 and CB Predictor.
Benefits: With the Developer Kits you can
- Create turnkey applications that integrate the software into your workflow
- Automatically run multiple simulations to test different sets of assumptions
- Automatically run forecasts on multiple sets of data
- Integrate Crystal Ball and CB Predictor with other software tools
- Build custom reports and automate post-simulation analysis
Does: Real options analysis applies financial options theory to capital investments. Why is it a real option? It is “real” because you are investing in operating capital and physical assets instead of financial assets. It is an “option” because you have the right, but not the obligation, to invest.
Real options analysis is used in situations where management has flexibility when making large capital budget decisions with high levels of uncertainty. It helps identify and quantify the strategic value of these decisions. Real options analysis is an integral part of the risk analysis process.
ROAT combines the power of Crystal Ball® software and the flexibility of real-options analysis to provide a powerful, innovative method for financial decision-making.
What's New in ROAT 2.1
- A more User-Friendly Interface.
- A Report Analysis function in each module (explains the results obtained and provides an illustration of real-life applications).
- A completely new User Manual and Getting Started Guide illustrating each module's functionality with example applications.
- Short Strategic Business Cases illustrating real-life applications of real options, starting with the framing of the problem through to its software solution.
- A total of 44 Modules and 99 Functions (compared to 33 modules and 69 functions in ROAT 1.0).
- Multiple new approaches to calculating Volatility.
- Three easy-to-use Customized Options (Advanced, Manual, and Sequential Custom Options).
- Visible Equations and Calculations in the customized options modules, allowing for Monte Carlo simulation, forecasting, and optimization, as well as linking and embedding formulas from other spreadsheets.
- Stochastic Process Generator useful for forecasting hard-to-forecast variables (mean reversion, jump diffusion, random walk, Brownian Motion).
Risk Analysis Using Crystal Ball®, a multimedia training CD, is an excellent interactive way to learn Crystal Ball.
The course is modular and easily navigated so that you can learn at your own pace. The units include software tips and application ideas, as well as periodic tests and exercises to help solidify the concepts.
We have created this course in partnership with Dr. John M. Charnes, professor at the University of Kansas School of Business. The training concepts and materials are based on the regular risk analysis training courses taught by Decisioneering and Dr. Charnes and are intended for a general audience.
"Excellent design for learning. I liked the easy integration with the exercises, and the quizzes, which tested and reinforce what you learned."
Over the past five years, Decisioneering has worked with many authors and publishers to produce college-level and professional textbooks for individuals who need to learn how to apply Crystal Ball to their work.
As of early 2003, Crystal Ball users can select from over 35 books that describe how Crystal Ball can be used in some aspect of professional applications. Over 15 of these textbooks include a CD with a trial or student version of Crystal Ball. Most feature screen shots, quizzes, and example applications to help students and professionals understand the key concepts of spreadsheet risk analysis with Crystal Ball.