Oracle Crystal Ball is the leading spreadsheet-based application suite for predictive modeling, forecasting, simulation, and optimization. It gives you unparalleled insight into the critical factors affecting risk. With Crystal Ball, you can make the right tactical decisions to reach your objectives and gain a competitive edge under even the most uncertain market conditions.
Using Monte Carlo simulation, Oracle Crystal Ball automatically calculates and records the results of thousands of different "what if" cases. Analysis of these scenarios reveals to you the range of possible outcomes, their probability of occurring, the inputs that most impact your model, and where you should focus your efforts. Oracle Crystal Ball is for strategic planners, financial analysts, engineers, scientists, entrepreneurs, CPAs, marketing managers, venture capitalists, consultants, Six Sigma professionals, and anyone else who uses spreadsheets to forecast uncertain results.
Enhancements in definition of correlation
The new features associated with the correlation feature includes:
- New Correlations command is now available through the Crystal Ball ribbon (Microsoft Excel 2007 or later) or menu (Microsoft Excel 2003).
- Intelligent Selection algorithms make it easier to define a correlation matrix by selecting one or a few more cells.
- Consistency checks through Matrix view supports with adjustment capability plus the ability to switch between adjusted and unadjusted matrix views.
- Matrix view also includes an optional interactive correlation chart.
- Easily generated Scatter charts for correlation pairs within a matrix.
- The Developer Kit of Crystal Ball has new calls and constants to support these features
Enhancement in OptQuest
The OptQuest feature of Crystal Ball Decision Optimizer can now handle single constraint formulas that define multiple constraints. Formulas can entered with arrays of values instead of separate formulas, like:- “A1:A5 <= B1:B”.
Enhancements in Distribution Parameter
The given distributions have increased parameter limits as noted:
- Limit of Shape parameters and their sum has been increased in Beta distribution
- Trials parameter limit has been increased in Binomial distribution
- Population parameter limit has been increased in Hypergeometric distribution.
- Shape parameter limit has been increased in Negative binomial distribution
- Pareto distribution, weibull distribution and Gamma distribution
- Think in ranges? €”Get the full picture in the face of an uncertain future
- Gain valuable insight? €”Identify and mitigate the key inputs that drive risk
- Communicate your risks? €”Share your findings through graphs, charts, and reports that let you vividly present and communicate the results of your analyses
- Collaborate with others? €”Work as a team, sharing models and data to get your work done faster
- Get results quickly? €”Start using Oracle Crystal Ball in minutes
- Enhance your investment? €”Draw on the spreadsheet technology yDraw on the spreadsheet technology you already own
As a fully integrated Excel add-in program with its own toolbar and menus, Crystal Ball picks up where spreadsheets end by letting you perform Monte Carlo analysis (a standard technique for simulating real-world situations involving elements of uncertainty). The Crystal Ball 11.1.2 upgrade incorporates a number of enhancing features, boosting Crystal Ball's capabilities, but at the same time, making it easier to use (see below for details). Furthermore, a new licensing system has been developed, making activating, upgrading, updating and registering your Crystal Ball product a much more pleasant experience.
Streamline risk and uncertainty analysis in your spreadsheets with this integrated toolset.
Crystal Ball 11.1.2 is the easiest way to perform Monte Carlo simulations in your own spreadsheets. Crystal Ball automatically calculates thousands of different "what if" cases, saving the inputs and results of each calculation as individual scenarios. Analysis of these scenarios reveals to you the range of possible outcomes, their probability of occurring, which input has the most effect on your model and where you should focus your efforts.
For Six Sigma applications, capabilities metrics calculated with the simulation results let you better integrate simulation into your methodology.
With Crystal Ball 11.1.2 you can:
Add scalable methods for collaborating: Get your work done faster. Work as a team sharing standardized uncertainty distributions with publish and subscribe features.
Communicate and persuade: Share your findings. Graphs, charts and reports let you vividly present and communicate the results of your analysis.
Get a credible picture of risk: The future holds uncertainty and risk and so should your models. Get the information you need from detailed statistics to summarized reports, to understand where to focus your efforts next.
Crystal Ball 11.1.2 Features:
Charting: A new charting engine delivers amazing presentation-quality charts and reports. Charts also support 3D views and right-click menus.
Assumptions: The new assumption chart interface allows you to add marker lines to track specific values or statistics, and graphically view the generated random numbers. The randomly generated assumption values are now saved automatically as a run preference.
Forecasts: Add the ability to fit distributions to forecasts during simulation, Include many different custom marker lines on forecasts (mean, median, standard deviations, base case, percentiles, etc.)
Preferences: Chart preferences are now in their own, independent dialog. Expanded forecast preferences include preferences for the forecast window, precision, filter and auto-extract. New assumption preferences.
Distribution Gallery: Distribution Gallery dialog, which now sports an Outlook-like interface, groups the distributions into folders called Categories. Categories are libraries of distributions.
Publish and Subscribe: Expanding on the concept of one person defining a distribution once and using it many times, Crystal Ball 11.1.2 introduces the ability to publish many categories and subscribe to categories. Define a distribution once, publish it, and allow multiple people to subscribe and use it many times.
Auto Extract: Crystal Ball 11.1.2 now includes an auto-extract feature that writes selected forecast information and statistics to an Excel worksheet after simulation.
Extract Data: You can extract data from both forecasts and assumptions and extract multiple types of data.
Correlated Assumptions:Correlations have an enhanced data picker for adding assumptions. In addition, correlated assumptions can now span worksheets.
Sensitivity Analysis (sensitivity chart) : New charting capabilities and an enhanced data view.
Reports: Select a pre-defined report or create your own custom report. Reports now include new statistics and more control over data and charts.
Distribution Fitting: It is now possible to show distribution fitting while running a simulation. There is also an enhanced data view for quick access to fit statistics.
Overlay Chart: Fit distributions to all forecasts. View stats and percentiles for all forecasts. New charting including transparent and 3D viewing plus rotation.
Custom Distribution: It is now possible to link directly to data in the spreadsheet. There is also a new data grid to manipulate data from within the assumption editor.
Choosing Objects: A new chooser allows you to easily pick which charts to show (assumptions, forecasts, overlay, trend and sensitivity), as well as select some or all of your assumption, forecast and decision variable cells from your spreadsheet. You can change the display from a Tree view to a List view.
User Macros :The macro scheme is different in Crystal Ball 11.1.2. There is no longer a Macro ?€œPreference tab?€?. Rather, Crystal Ball 11.1.2 searches for macros of a certain name and executes them accordingly. This new scheme gives users more flexibility in testing and maintaining run-time macros. You can also run Crystal Ball macros in protected spreadsheets by unlocking them via an encrypted Dev Kit call.
Save/Restore Results: Save/Restore enables users to save parts of the simulation data for later retrieval. Results are no longer ?€œattached?€? to the spreadsheet so it is possible to restore multiple results at the same time. This also makes it possible to share the results without having to share the underlying model.
Control Panel:The Control Panel is a new feature in Crystal Ball 11.1.2. It gives the user a direct interface to control simulations, instead of using the menu or toolbar.
Online Help documentation: Online help is enabled via the F1 key, Help buttons, and Help menus in charts. You can also access online help by choosing Help > Crystal Ball > Crystal Ball Help in the main menu bar in Excel.
Distribution Parameters: Enter cell references for parameters by directly clicking on the spreadsheet cell, Enter complete formulas for parameters in place of simple values, Change the shapes of probability distribution easily by using spinner controls to tweak the parameters.
Support for Microsoft Excel 2010
Crystal Ball release 11.1.2 now supports Microsoft Excel 2010.
64-bit Crystal Ball for Compatibility with 64-bit Microsoft Excel 2010
A 64-bit version of Crystal Ball is now available for use with the 64-bit version of Microsoft Excel 2010.
ARIMA Added to Predictor
The Predictor feature of Crystal Ball now includes ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average), an advanced modeling technique for time-series analysis. Time-series forecasting with classic models like moving average and exponential smoothing becomes difficult when a series exhibits complex trends. ARIMA is a flexible model that can be used for fitting and forecasting many of these series. With the addition of ARIMA, Crystal Ball increases the forecasting power of Predictor to better meet the needs of enterprises that depend on high-quality forecasts.
Event Forecasting Added to Predictor
Predictor time-series forecasting now enables you to capture special events in the data and leverage your knowledge of similar future events to improve forecasts. These events can be one-time occurrences, such as a major marketing program, or events that repeat on a regular basis, such as quarterly sales promotions. You can also capture events that repeat at irregular intervals, such as assembly-line lockouts.
Crystal Ball Enterprise Performance Management for Enterprise Planning Suite
Related to Crystal Ball EPM, Oracle Crystal Ball Enterprise Performance Management for Oracle Hyperion Enterprise Planning Suite is now available as an option for customers of Oracle Hyperion Enterprise Planning Suite. Oracle Crystal Ball Enterprise Performance Management for Oracle Hyperion Enterprise Planning Suite enables Enterprise Planning Suite customers to run simulations and time-series forecasts against Oracle Essbase, Oracle Hyperion Strategic Finance, Fusion Edition, and Oracle Hyperion Planning, Fusion Edition.
More Powerful Crystal Ball API
You can now add risk analysis, forecasting, and simulation to your corporate applications and extend your enterprise modeling capabilities beyond Microsoft Excel by using the Crystal Ball Application Programming Interface for Microsoft .NET Framework (the Crystal Ball API). The Crystal Ball API has been updated and expanded to include the latest Crystal Ball features and is packaged to be built directly into your Web and Microsoft Windows-based applications.